Aspen Pharmacare, Eli Lilly’s exclusive distributor for Mounjaro across sub-Saharan Africa, says it expects the weight-loss and diabetes drug to generate more than R2 billion (about $124 million) in sales for its 2027 financial year. The forecast underscores how quickly Mounjaro has reshaped South Africa’s GLP-1 market since launching locally in late 2024, and signals Aspen’s ambitions to extend the drug’s reach further into the continent.

Market share jumps as Mounjaro overtakes rivals

South Africa’s GLP-1 market has nearly doubled to roughly R2.8 billion over the past year, and Mounjaro has been the biggest beneficiary of that growth. According to reporting on Aspen’s outlook, the drug’s share of the local GLP-1 market climbed from about 15% to 53% since launch, putting it ahead of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic in a market that both companies have fought hard to win. Aspen chief executive Stephen Saad was quoted saying the company is “hoping to do more than 2 billion rand in sales in financial year 2027” from Mounjaro alone.

A small slice of Lilly’s global sales, a big regional bet

Set against Eli Lilly’s global numbers, Africa’s contribution is still modest — roughly 1.25% of a single global quarter of Mounjaro sales, which topped $9.94 billion for Lilly worldwide in its most recent quarter. But analysts covering the story note that early distribution deals, regulatory approvals and physician adoption now could help Lilly and Aspen lock in a durable lead before Africa’s obesity-drug market matures and draws more competition.

Registrations pending in Kenya and Nigeria

Aspen has also filed registration applications for Mounjaro in Kenya and Nigeria, two of the continent’s largest pharmaceutical markets. If approved, those markets could add meaningfully to the company’s weight-loss and diabetes drug revenue beyond South Africa, which currently anchors its GLP-1 business on the continent.

Generic Ozempic in the pipeline too

Separately, Aspen is pushing ahead with plans for its own generic semaglutide (the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy) for select emerging markets, having already secured Canadian registration and filed applications elsewhere, including Brazil. That effort would put Aspen on both sides of the GLP-1 competition — as Lilly’s Mounjaro distributor and as a generic semaglutide manufacturer in its own right.

What this means for patients

This article is for general information purposes only and does not constitute medical or financial advice. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before starting, stopping or changing any medication, and speak to your medical aid provider about scheme-specific coverage.

Sources

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